How to Follow a Non-Random Route to Success (And "Insuccess")

Nugget from Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Hey Friend!

Today I bring you a nugget from Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

It explains what leads to success, and what leads to the opposite—“insuccess”.

👤 Author

💡Nugget

🟠 Nassim Nicholas Taleb:

Excerpt from his Book → Fooled by Randomness

Our brain is not cut out for nonlinearities.

People think that if, say, two variables are causally linked, then a steady input in one variable should always yield a result in the other one. Our emotional apparatus is designed for linear causality.

For instance, you study every day and learn something in proportion to your studies. If you do not feel that you are going anywhere, your emotions will cause you to become demoralized.

But reality rarely gives us the privilege of a satisfying linear positive progression: You may study for a year and learn nothing, then, unless you are disheartened by the empty results and give up, something will come to you in a flash.

My partner Mark Spitznagel summarizes it as follows: Imagine yourself practicing the piano every day for a long time, barely being able to perform “Chopsticks,” then suddenly finding yourself capable of playing Rachmaninov.

Owing to this nonlinearity, people cannot comprehend the nature of the rare event. This summarizes why there are routes to success that are nonrandom, but few, very few, people have the mental stamina to follow them.

"Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm."

- Winston Churchill

Those who go the extra mile are rewarded. In my profession one may own a security that benefits from lower market prices, but may not react at all until some critical point. Most people give up before the rewards.

 The path to guaranteed "Insuccess"...

From Charlie Munger and Nassim Taleb I learned the usefulness of the mental model "inversion" (Nassim calls it "Via Negativa") — which essentially consists in inverting the question.

"I don’t believe I have the ability to say what is going to work. Rather, I try to eliminate what’s not going to work. I think being successful is just about not making [consequential] mistakes. It’s not about having correct judgment. It’s about avoiding incorrect judgments."
- Naval Ravikant

So instead of asking: "How can I become successful?", let's ask ourselves: "How can I become insuccessful?". So that we can then avoid that at all cost!

Nassim Taleb offers great advice on how to guarantee "insuccess"…

Interestingly, if we just follow the simple prescription from the Stoics — To Focus only on what you can control. We will (as a byproduct) avoid these traits that lead to "insuccess" (described in Nassim Taleb's tweet).

“Some things are in our control, while others are not. We control our opinion, choice, desire, aversion, and, in a word, everything of our own doing. We don’t control our body, property, reputation, position, and, in a word, everything not of our own doing. Even more, the things in our control are by nature free, unhindered, and unobstructed, while those not in our control are weak, slavish, can be hindered, and are not our own.”

- Epictetus (Book → Enchiridion)

💥 Stuff I Loved

(Highlight resurfaced on Readwise)

✍️ Essay

I recently wrote an essay on how to develop Courage and Confidence in a deterministic way.

I think it’s important to cultivate Courage not only for its own sake (since it’s a virtue in itself) but also to unlock our potential and grow ourselves—and Confidence also helps for that!

Courage vs. Confidence: How to Develop Each in a Deterministic Way → Click here to read the full essay

I received great inspiration and editing help from Brian David Crane 🙏🏻

If you enjoyed this newsletter edition, consider fueling 🔥 my work with an absurdly massive (or small) donation ✨

Wishing you a great weekend 🌈

Julio xx

P.S. If you liked this article, you'll definitely enjoy my free 80-page ebook. It’s packed with 23 big ideas (from top influential doers and entrepreneurs) to become better, richer and wiser. Download your copy here!